Warfarin Versus Aspirin in Reduced Cardiac Ejection Fraction (WARCEF) Trial

Sponsor
Columbia University (Other)
Overall Status
Completed
CT.gov ID
NCT00041938
Collaborator
National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) (NIH)
2,305
64
2
141
36
0.3

Study Details

Study Description

Brief Summary

The purpose of this study is to determine which of two treatments, Warfarin or aspirin, is better for preventing death and stroke in patients with poor heart function.

We are now transitioning into the sub-analysis part of the WARCEF patient data.

The study has recently completed data analysis for its Primary Aim. All randomized patients have completed their follow up. All study related procedure as per the protocol has been completed. We are now in the extension phase of the study to obtain more patient data to address further aims of the study. No new procedures are performed and data already in place at the sites will be collected (EKG and echocardiograms).

The aims for this study extension are:
  • To assess progression of cardiac dysfunction over time among heart failure patients

  • To correlate prognosis with cardiac dysfunction

Condition or Disease Intervention/Treatment Phase
Phase 3

Detailed Description

Warfarin has proven effective in patients with ischemic heart disease, especially in the reduction of stroke, death and re-infarction following myocardial infarction, and in the reduction of stroke in atrial fibrillation. Warfarin is the most promising unstudied intervention in patients with cardiac failure. This randomized, double-blind, multi-center study will define optimal antithrombotic therapy for patients with cardiac (heart) failure and patients with low ejection fraction (EF). EF is the proportion of left ventricular volume emptied during systole. It reliably measures left ventricular systolic function.

With the rapidly increasing numbers of elderly patients with heart failure, this study has important public health implications. The study will determine which of two commonly used treatments Warfarin, an anticoagulant, or aspirin, a drug which affects platelet function is better for preventing death and stroke in patients with low ejection fraction.

Study Design

Study Type:
Interventional
Actual Enrollment :
2305 participants
Allocation:
Randomized
Intervention Model:
Parallel Assignment
Masking:
Double (Participant, Investigator)
Primary Purpose:
Prevention
Official Title:
Warfarin Versus Aspirin in Reduced Cardiac Ejection Fraction (WARCEF) Trial
Study Start Date :
Oct 1, 2002
Actual Primary Completion Date :
Aug 1, 2011
Actual Study Completion Date :
Jul 1, 2014

Arms and Interventions

Arm Intervention/Treatment
Active Comparator: aspirin

Aspirin: 325 mg per day

Drug: aspirin
325 mg per day

Active Comparator: warfarin

Warfarin: International Normalized Ratio (INR) 2.5-3.0; target INR 2.75

Drug: Warfarin
INR 2.5-3.0; target INR 2.75

Outcome Measures

Primary Outcome Measures

  1. Event Rate Per 100 Patient Years for Composite Endpoint of Ischemic Stroke, Intracerebral Hemorrhage, or Death [From date of randomization until the date of the first to occur of ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, or death, up to 6 years]

    The time, in years, from randomization to the first to occur of ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, or death, up to a maximum of 6 years. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects with event)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.

Secondary Outcome Measures

  1. Event Rate Per 100 Patient-years for Composite Endpoint of Hospitalization for Heart Failure, Myocardial Infarction, Ischemic Stroke, Intracerebral Hemorrhage, or Death. [From randomization to the first to occur of hospitalization for heart failure, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, or death, up to a maximum of 6 years.]

    The time, in years, from date of randomization to the date of the first to occur of hospitalization for heart failure, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, or death, up to 6 years. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects with event)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.

Other Outcome Measures

  1. Event Rate Per 100 Patient-years for Ischemic Stroke [From date of randomization to date of ischemic stroke component of primary composite outcome, up to 6 years]

    Time, in years, from date of randomization to date of ischemic stroke component of primary composite outcome, up to 6 years. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects with ischemic stroke)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.

  2. Event Rate Per 100 Patient-years for Intracerebral Hemorrhage [From date of randomization to date of intracerebral hemorrhage component of primary composite outcome, up to 6 years]

    Time, in years, from date of randomization to date of intracerebral hemorrhage component of primary composite outcome. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects with intracerebral hemorrhage)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.

  3. Event Rate Per 100 Patient-years for Death [From date of randomization to date of death component of primary composite outcome, up to 6 years]

    Time, in years, from date of randomization to date of death component of primary composite outcome. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects who died)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.

  4. Event Rate Per 100 Patient Years of Myocardial Infarction Component of Secondary Composite Outcome [From date of randomization to date of myocardial infarction component of secondary composite outcome, up to 6 years]

    Time, in years, from date of randomization to date of myocardial infarction, up to 6 years. Includes only myocardial infarctions that occurred during follow-up, before any heart failure hospitalization. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects with myocardial infarction)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.

  5. Event Rate Per 100 Patient Years of Heart Failure Hospitalization Component of Secondary Composite Outcome. [From date of randomization to date of heart failure hospitalization component of secondary composite outcome, up to 6 years]

    Time, in years, from date of randomization to date of heart failure hospitalization, up to 6 years. Includes hospitalizations for heart failure during follow-up that were not preceded by myocardial infarction. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects with heart failure hospitalization)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.

  6. Event Rate Per 100 Patient Years of Ischemic Stroke Component of Secondary Composite Outcome [From date of randomization to date of ischemic stroke component of secondary composite outcome, up to 6 years]

    Ischemic stroke component of secondary composite endpoint. Includes only ischemic strokes that were not preceded by a myocardial infarction or heart failure hospitalization. The number of ischemic strokes that are components of the secondary outcome does not therefore match the number of ischemic strokes that are components of the primary outcome. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects with ischemic stroke)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1)of all randomized patients / 365.25.

  7. Event Rate Per 100 Patient Years of Intracerebral Hemorrhage Component of Secondary Composite Outcome [From date of randomization to date of intracerebral hemorrhage component of secondary composite outcome, up to 6 years]

    Time, in years, from date of randomization to date of intracerebral hemorrhage component of secondary composite outcome. Includes only intracerebral hemorrhages not preceded by myocardial infarction or heart failure hospitalization. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects with intracerebral hemorrhage)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.

  8. Event Rate Per 100 Patient Years of Death Component of Secondary Composite Outcome [From date of randomization to date of death component of secondary composite outcome, up to 6 years]

    Time, in years, from randomization to death component of secondary composite outcome. This measure counts only deaths that were not preceded by heart failure hospitalization, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or intracerebral hemorrhage. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects who died)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.

  9. Rate Per 100 Patient Years of Major Hemorrhage [From date of randomization until end of scheduled follow-up, up to 6 years]

    Rate/100 patient-years of major hemorrhage. Includes all major hemorrhages in any patient. Major hemorrhage was defined as intracerebral, epidural, subdural, subarachnoid, spinal intramedullary, or retinal hemorrhage; any other bleeding causing a decline in the hemoglobin level of more than 2 g per deciliter in 48 hours; or bleeding requiring transfusion of 2 or more units of whole blood, hospitalization, or surgical intervention. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of major hemorrhage events)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.

  10. Rate Per 100 Patient-years of Minor Hemorrhage. [From date of randomization until the end of scheduled follow-up, up to 6 years]

    Rate per 100 patient years of minor hemorrhage. Includes all minor hemorrhages. Minor hemorrhage was defined as any non-major hemorrhage. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of minor hemorrhage events)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1)of all randomized patients / 365.25.

Eligibility Criteria

Criteria

Ages Eligible for Study:
18 Years and Older
Sexes Eligible for Study:
All
Accepts Healthy Volunteers:
No

Inclusion Criteria

  • Cardiac EF <=35% by radionuclide ventriculography, left ventriculography or quantitive echocardiographic measurement or an echocardiographic Wall Motion Index of <=1.2, within three months of enrollment. The patient's clinical cardiac state at enrollment should be similar to their state at the time of the qualifying echocardiogram. The qualifying left ventricular function measurement must be obtained at least three months after an MI, coronary bypass grafting, PTCA, and at least one month after pacemaker insertion. Patients scheduled for mitral valve repair should have qualifying echo after surgery.

  • Modified Rankin score <=4.

  • Patient must be taking ACE inhibitors. If intolerant of ACE inhibitor, patient must be on angiotensin II receptor blockers or hydralazine and nitrates.

  • Patient is able to follow an outpatient protocol (requiring monthly blood tests and clinic visits every four months for the duration of the study) and is available by telephone.

  • Patient understands the purpose and requirements of the study, can make him/herself understood, and has provided informed consent.

  • Patients with recent stroke or TIA within twelve (12) months will be eligible to be included in the recent stroke (RS) subgroup.

  • Chronic CHF patients (NYHA I * IV) admitted to the hospital can be randomized prior to discharge if the patient is stable, taking oral medications for 24 hours and ambulatory at the time of discharge. Stable New York Heart Association Class IV patients will be eligible for randomization.

Exclusion Criteria

  • The presence of any of the following unequivocal cardiac sources of embolism: chronic or paroxysmal AF, mechanical valve, endocarditis, intracardiac mobile or pedunculated thrombus, and valvular vegetation.

  • Cyanotic congenital heart disease, Eisenmenger's syndrome.

  • Decompensated heart failure.

  • Cardiac surgery, angioplasty, or MI within the past 3 months prior to randomization.

  • A contraindication to the use of either warfarin or aspirin, e.g. active peptic ulcer disease, active bleeding diathesis, platelets <100,000*, hematocrit <30, INR >1.3 (if not on warfarin), clotting factor abnormality that increases the risk of bleeding, alcohol or substance abuse, severe gait instability, cerebral hemorrhage, systemic hemorrhage within the past year, severe liver impairment (AST >3x normal*, cirrhosis), any condition requiring regular use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agents, allergy to aspirin or warfarin, uncontrolled severe hypertension (systolic pressure >180 mm Hg or diastolic pressure > 110 mm Hg), positive stool guaiac not attributable to hemorrhoids, creatinine >3.0*. *on most recent test done within 30 days prior to randomization

  • Patient needs continuing therapy with intravenous heparin or low molecular weight heparin or a specific antiplatelet agent.

  • Dementia or psychiatric or physical problem that prevents the patient from following an outpatient program reliably.

  • Comorbid conditions that may limit survival to less than five years.

  • Pregnancy, or female of childbearing potential who is not sterilized or is not using a medically accepted form of contraception* (see procedure manual). *A pregnancy test is required for all women of childbearing age.

  • Enrollment in another study that would conflict with WARCEF.

  • Hospitalization for new diagnosis of onset CHF within the past one month or carotid endarterectomy or pacemaker insertion within the past one month prior to randomization .

  • Person under 18 years of age.

Contacts and Locations

Locations

Site City State Country Postal Code
1 Southern Arizona Veterans Affairs Medical Center Tucson Arizona United States
2 University of Arizona Health Sciences Center Tucson Arizona United States
3 Santa Clara Medical Center Santa Clara California United States
4 West Los Angeles Veterans Affairs Medical Center West Los Angeles California United States
5 Denver Health Medical Center Denver Colorado United States
6 Denver Veterans Affairs Medical Center Denver Colorado United States
7 George Washington University Washington District of Columbia United States 20037
8 Mayo Clinic Transplant Center Jacksonville Florida United States
9 Melbourne Internal Medicine Associates Melbourne Florida United States
10 Jackson Memorial Hospital/U. of Miami Miami Florida United States
11 Mercy Research Institute Miami Florida United States
12 Cardiovascular Consultants of South Florida Tamarac Florida United States
13 Morehouse School of Medicine Atlanta Georgia United States
14 Northeast Georgia Heart Center Gainesville Georgia United States
15 University of Illinois at Chicago Chicago Illinois United States
16 Methodist Heart, Lung and Vascular Institute Peoria Illinois United States
17 University of Kentucky Lexington Kentucky United States
18 Louisville Veterans Affairs Medical Center Louisville Kentucky United States
19 University of Louisville Louisville Kentucky United States
20 Gulf Regional Research, LLC Metairie Louisiana United States
21 LSU Health Sciences Center Shreveport Louisiana United States
22 Lahey Clinic Burlington Massachusetts United States
23 Veterans Affairs Medical Center Detroit Michigan United States
24 Mercy Health Partners Muskegon Michigan United States
25 Reno Veterans Affairs Medical Center Reno Nevada United States
26 Concord Hospital Concord New Hampshire United States
27 UMDNJ - New Brunswick New Brunswick New Jersey United States
28 University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey Newark New Jersey United States
29 Albany Medical College Albany New York United States
30 Buffalo General Hospital Buffalo New York United States
31 Kaleida Health Millard Fillmore Hospital Buffalo New York United States
32 Five Towns Neuroscience Research Cedarhurst New York United States
33 Long Island Jewish Medical Center New Hyde Park New York United States
34 Columbia University, New York Presbyterian Hospital PH 3-342 New York New York United States 10032
35 Columbia University Medical Center New York New York United States
36 Mount Sinai Medical Center New York New York United States
37 Northport Veterans Affairs Medical Center Northport New York United States
38 University of Rochester Medical Center Rochester New York United States
39 University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Chapel Hill North Carolina United States
40 MetroHealth Medical Center Cleveland Ohio United States
41 Oklahoma City Veterans Affairs Medical Center Oklahoma City Oklahoma United States
42 Lehigh Valley Hospital Allentown Pennsylvania United States
43 Tri-State Medical Group Cardiology Beaver Pennsylvania United States
44 Sewickley Valley Medical Group, Cardiology Leetsdale Pennsylvania United States
45 Albert Einstein Medical Center Philadelphia Pennsylvania United States
46 Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia Pennsylvania United States
47 Penn Presbyterian Medical Center Philadelphia Pennsylvania United States
48 Temple University Hospital Philadelphia Pennsylvania United States
49 Black Hills Health Care System Fort Meade South Dakota United States
50 Brooke Army Medical Center MCHE - MDC Cardiology Service Ft. Sam Houston Texas United States
51 Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center-MEDVAMC Houston Texas United States
52 Salem VAMC Salem Virginia United States
53 Huntington Veterans Affairs Medical Center Huntington West Virginia United States
54 William S. Middleton Memorial Veterans Hospital Madison Wisconsin United States
55 Center for Neurologic Research Lethbridge Alberta Canada
56 St. Boniface General Hospital Winnipeg Manitoba Canada
57 Saint John Regional Hospital Saint John New Brunswick Canada
58 QE II Health Sciences Centre Halifax Nova Scotia Canada
59 London Health Sciences Centre London Ontario Canada
60 Ottawa Heart Institute Ottawa Ontario Canada
61 Etobicoke Cardiac Research Centre Rexdale Ontario Canada
62 St. Michael's Hospital Toronto Ontario Canada
63 Montreal General Hospital Montreal Quebec Canada
64 Montreal Heart Institute Montreal Quebec Canada

Sponsors and Collaborators

  • Columbia University
  • National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS)

Investigators

  • Principal Investigator: Shunichi Homma, M.D., Principal Cardiologist, Associate Chief, Division of Cardiology, and Director, Echocardiography Laboratories Professor of Medicine
  • Principal Investigator: Seamus Thompson, PhD, Statistical PI: Clinical Professor of Biostatistics and Neurology

Study Documents (Full-Text)

None provided.

More Information

Publications

None provided.
Responsible Party:
Shunichi Homma, Margaret Milliken Hatch Professor of Medicine at the New York-Presbyterian Hospital at the Columbia University Medical Center (In Biomedical Engineering), Columbia University
ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier:
NCT00041938
Other Study ID Numbers:
  • AAAC1093
  • U01NS039143-01
  • R01NS39154
  • CRC
First Posted:
Jul 22, 2002
Last Update Posted:
Sep 5, 2014
Last Verified:
Aug 1, 2014
Keywords provided by Shunichi Homma, Margaret Milliken Hatch Professor of Medicine at the New York-Presbyterian Hospital at the Columbia University Medical Center (In Biomedical Engineering), Columbia University
Additional relevant MeSH terms:

Study Results

Participant Flow

Recruitment Details Recruited 2305 patients at 176 sites in 11 countries, between 10/1/2002 and 1/31/2010.
Pre-assignment Detail Intent-to-treat trial - all randomized patients followed and analyzed.
Arm/Group Title Aspirin Warfarin
Arm/Group Description Aspirin : 325 mg per day Warfarin : International Normalized Ratio (INR) 2.5-3.0; target INR 2.75
Period Title: Overall Study
STARTED 1163 1142
Completed Follow-up 761 745
Primary Endpoint 320 302
Only Vital Status Known 44 46
Lost to Follow-up 18 17
Withdrew Consent 20 14
COMPLETED 1125 1111
NOT COMPLETED 38 31

Baseline Characteristics

Arm/Group Title Aspirin Warfarin Total
Arm/Group Description Aspirin : 325 mg per day Warfarin : INR 2.5-3.0; target INR 2.75 Total of all reporting groups
Overall Participants 1163 1142 2305
Age (Count of Participants)
<=18 years
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
Between 18 and 65 years
732
62.9%
706
61.8%
1438
62.4%
>=65 years
431
37.1%
436
38.2%
867
37.6%
Age (years) [Mean (Standard Deviation) ]
Mean (Standard Deviation) [years]
61
(11.1)
61
(11.6)
61
(11.3)
Sex/Gender, Customized (participants) [Number]
Male
936
80.5%
904
79.2%
1840
79.8%
Female
224
19.3%
236
20.7%
460
20%
Unknown
3
0.3%
2
0.2%
5
0.2%
Region of Enrollment (participants) [Number]
North America
546
46.9%
573
50.2%
1119
48.5%
Europe
567
48.8%
527
46.1%
1094
47.5%
Argentina
50
4.3%
42
3.7%
92
4%

Outcome Measures

1. Primary Outcome
Title Event Rate Per 100 Patient Years for Composite Endpoint of Ischemic Stroke, Intracerebral Hemorrhage, or Death
Description The time, in years, from randomization to the first to occur of ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, or death, up to a maximum of 6 years. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects with event)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.
Time Frame From date of randomization until the date of the first to occur of ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, or death, up to 6 years

Outcome Measure Data

Analysis Population Description
Intent-to-treat analysis: all enrolled patients were analyzed.
Arm/Group Title Aspirin Warfarin
Arm/Group Description Aspirin : 325 mg per day Warfarin : INR 2.5-3.0; target INR 2.75
Measure Participants 1163 1142
Number [events per 100 patient-years]
7.93
7.47
Statistical Analysis 1
Statistical Analysis Overview Comparison Group Selection Aspirin, Warfarin
Comments The primary null hypothesis: time to first event in the composite primary endpoint does not differ significantly between warfarin and aspirin. The original target sample size was 2860, providing 89% power for a log-rank test with two-sided alpha .05, assuming a hazard rate reduction of 17.82% in either group compared with the other, after adjustment for use of beta-blockers and allowance for discontinuation of therapy, dropout, and crossover. The final sample of 2305 patients yielded 69% power.
Type of Statistical Test Superiority or Other
Comments
Statistical Test of Hypothesis p-Value 0.40
Comments The primary null hypotheses was tested at two-tailed alpha=0.05. A Haybittle-Peto interim monitoring procedure was performed with stopping boundaries for the interim analyses corresponding to a nominal two-tailed P value of 0.001.
Method Regression, Cox
Comments Cox models stratified by site, New York Heart Association class (I vs. II-IV), and status w/ respect to recent stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack.
Method of Estimation Estimation Parameter Hazard Ratio (HR)
Estimated Value 0.93
Confidence Interval (2-Sided) 95%
0.79 to 1.10
Parameter Dispersion Type:
Value:
Estimation Comments Hazard ratio is for comparison of warfarin vs. aspirin. Warfarin represents the numerator and aspirin represents the denominator of the hazard ratio.
2. Secondary Outcome
Title Event Rate Per 100 Patient-years for Composite Endpoint of Hospitalization for Heart Failure, Myocardial Infarction, Ischemic Stroke, Intracerebral Hemorrhage, or Death.
Description The time, in years, from date of randomization to the date of the first to occur of hospitalization for heart failure, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, or death, up to 6 years. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects with event)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.
Time Frame From randomization to the first to occur of hospitalization for heart failure, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, or death, up to a maximum of 6 years.

Outcome Measure Data

Analysis Population Description
Intent-to-treat analysis: all enrolled patients were analyzed.
Arm/Group Title Aspirin Warfarin
Arm/Group Description Aspirin : 325 mg per day Warfarin : INR 2.5-3.0; target INR 2.75
Measure Participants 1163 1142
Number [events per 100 patient-years]
12.15
12.70
Statistical Analysis 1
Statistical Analysis Overview Comparison Group Selection Aspirin, Warfarin
Comments Secondary null hypothesis: time to first event in the composite secondary endpoint does not differ significantly between warfarin and aspirin. This was tested at prespecified alpha = 0.05 level, two-tailed.
Type of Statistical Test Superiority or Other
Comments
Statistical Test of Hypothesis p-Value 0.33
Comments Secondary null hypothesis was tested at two-tailed alpha = 0.05.
Method Regression, Cox
Comments Cox models stratified by site, New York Heart Association class (I vs. II-IV), and status w/ respect to recent stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack.
Method of Estimation Estimation Parameter Hazard Ratio (HR)
Estimated Value 1.07
Confidence Interval (2-Sided) 95%
0.93 to 1.23
Parameter Dispersion Type:
Value:
Estimation Comments Hazard ratio is for comparison of warfarin vs. aspirin. Warfarin represents the numerator and aspirin represents the denominator of the hazard ratio.
3. Other Pre-specified Outcome
Title Event Rate Per 100 Patient-years for Ischemic Stroke
Description Time, in years, from date of randomization to date of ischemic stroke component of primary composite outcome, up to 6 years. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects with ischemic stroke)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.
Time Frame From date of randomization to date of ischemic stroke component of primary composite outcome, up to 6 years

Outcome Measure Data

Analysis Population Description
Intent-to-treat
Arm/Group Title Aspirin Warfarin
Arm/Group Description Aspirin : 325 mg per day Warfarin : INR 2.5-3.0; target INR 2.75
Measure Participants 1163 1142
Number [rate per 100 patient years]
1.36
0.72
Statistical Analysis 1
Statistical Analysis Overview Comparison Group Selection Aspirin, Warfarin
Comments Null hypothesis: there is no difference between warfarin and aspirin in time to ischemic stroke, adjusting for competing risks of death and intracerebral hemorrhage.
Type of Statistical Test Superiority or Other
Comments
Statistical Test of Hypothesis p-Value 0.005
Comments
Method Regression, Cox
Comments Cause-specific Cox model, stratified by site, NYHA class (I vs. II, III, or IV), and prior stroke or TIA status.
Method of Estimation Estimation Parameter Hazard Ratio (HR)
Estimated Value 0.52
Confidence Interval (2-Sided) 95%
0.33 to 0.82
Parameter Dispersion Type:
Value:
Estimation Comments Hazard ratio is for comparison of warfarin vs. aspirin. Warfarin represents the numerator and aspirin represents the denominator of the hazard ratio.
4. Other Pre-specified Outcome
Title Event Rate Per 100 Patient-years for Intracerebral Hemorrhage
Description Time, in years, from date of randomization to date of intracerebral hemorrhage component of primary composite outcome. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects with intracerebral hemorrhage)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.
Time Frame From date of randomization to date of intracerebral hemorrhage component of primary composite outcome, up to 6 years

Outcome Measure Data

Analysis Population Description
Intent-to-treat
Arm/Group Title Aspirin Warfarin
Arm/Group Description Aspirin : 325 mg per day Warfarin : INR 2.5-3.0; target INR 2.75
Measure Participants 1163 1142
Number [rate per 100 patient years]
0.05
0.12
Statistical Analysis 1
Statistical Analysis Overview Comparison Group Selection Aspirin, Warfarin
Comments Null hypothesis: there is no difference between warfarin and aspirin in time to intracerebral hemorrhage, adjusting for competing risks of death and ischemic stroke.
Type of Statistical Test Superiority or Other
Comments
Statistical Test of Hypothesis p-Value 0.35
Comments
Method Regression, Cox
Comments Cause-specific Cox model, stratified by site, NYHA class (I vs. II, III, or IV), and prior stroke or TIA status.
Method of Estimation Estimation Parameter Hazard Ratio (HR)
Estimated Value 2.22
Confidence Interval () 95%
0.43 to 11.66
Parameter Dispersion Type:
Value:
Estimation Comments
5. Other Pre-specified Outcome
Title Event Rate Per 100 Patient-years for Death
Description Time, in years, from date of randomization to date of death component of primary composite outcome. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects who died)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.
Time Frame From date of randomization to date of death component of primary composite outcome, up to 6 years

Outcome Measure Data

Analysis Population Description
Intent-to-treat
Arm/Group Title Aspirin Warfarin
Arm/Group Description Aspirin : 325 mg per day Warfarin : INR 2.5-3.0; target INR 2.75
Measure Participants 1163 1142
Number [events per 100 patient-years]
6.52
6.63
Statistical Analysis 1
Statistical Analysis Overview Comparison Group Selection Aspirin, Warfarin
Comments
Type of Statistical Test Superiority or Other
Comments
Statistical Test of Hypothesis p-Value 0.91
Comments
Method Regression, Cox
Comments Cause-specific Cox model, stratified by site, NYHA class (I vs. II, III, or IV), and prior stroke or TIA status.
Method of Estimation Estimation Parameter Hazard Ratio (HR)
Estimated Value 1.01
Confidence Interval (2-Sided) 95%
0.85 to 1.20
Parameter Dispersion Type:
Value:
Estimation Comments Hazard ratio is for comparison of warfarin vs. aspirin. Warfarin represents the numerator and aspirin represents the denominator of the hazard ratio.
6. Other Pre-specified Outcome
Title Event Rate Per 100 Patient Years of Myocardial Infarction Component of Secondary Composite Outcome
Description Time, in years, from date of randomization to date of myocardial infarction, up to 6 years. Includes only myocardial infarctions that occurred during follow-up, before any heart failure hospitalization. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects with myocardial infarction)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.
Time Frame From date of randomization to date of myocardial infarction component of secondary composite outcome, up to 6 years

Outcome Measure Data

Analysis Population Description
Intent-to-treat
Arm/Group Title Aspirin Warfarin
Arm/Group Description Aspirin : 325 mg per day Warfarin : INR 2.5-3.0; target INR 2.75
Measure Participants 1163 1142
Number [events per 100 patient years]
0.87
0.80
Statistical Analysis 1
Statistical Analysis Overview Comparison Group Selection Aspirin, Warfarin
Comments Null hypothesis: there is no difference between warfarin and aspirin in time to myocardial infarction, adjusting for competing risks of heart failure hospitalization, ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, and death.
Type of Statistical Test Superiority or Other
Comments
Statistical Test of Hypothesis p-Value 0.93
Comments
Method Regression, Cox
Comments Cause-specific Cox model, stratified by site, NYHA class (I vs. II, III, or IV), and prior stroke or TIA status.
Method of Estimation Estimation Parameter Hazard Ratio (HR)
Estimated Value 0.98
Confidence Interval (2-Sided) 95%
0.58 to 1.64
Parameter Dispersion Type:
Value:
Estimation Comments Hazard ratio is for comparison of warfarin vs. aspirin. Warfarin represents the numerator and aspirin represents the denominator of the hazard ratio.
7. Other Pre-specified Outcome
Title Event Rate Per 100 Patient Years of Heart Failure Hospitalization Component of Secondary Composite Outcome.
Description Time, in years, from date of randomization to date of heart failure hospitalization, up to 6 years. Includes hospitalizations for heart failure during follow-up that were not preceded by myocardial infarction. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects with heart failure hospitalization)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.
Time Frame From date of randomization to date of heart failure hospitalization component of secondary composite outcome, up to 6 years

Outcome Measure Data

Analysis Population Description
Intent-to-treat.
Arm/Group Title Aspirin Warfarin
Arm/Group Description Aspirin : 325 mg per day Warfarin : INR 2.5-3.0; target INR 2.75
Measure Participants 1163 1142
Number [events per 100 patient years]
5.67
6.79
Statistical Analysis 1
Statistical Analysis Overview Comparison Group Selection Aspirin, Warfarin
Comments Null hypothesis: there is no difference between warfarin and aspirin in time to heart failure hospitalization, adjusting for competing risks of myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, and death.
Type of Statistical Test Superiority or Other
Comments
Statistical Test of Hypothesis p-Value 0.053
Comments
Method Regression, Cox
Comments Cause-specific Cox model, stratified by site, NYHA class (I vs. II, III, or IV), and prior stroke or TIA status.
Method of Estimation Estimation Parameter Hazard Ratio (HR)
Estimated Value 1.21
Confidence Interval (2-Sided) 95%
0.998 to 1.47
Parameter Dispersion Type:
Value:
Estimation Comments
8. Other Pre-specified Outcome
Title Event Rate Per 100 Patient Years of Ischemic Stroke Component of Secondary Composite Outcome
Description Ischemic stroke component of secondary composite endpoint. Includes only ischemic strokes that were not preceded by a myocardial infarction or heart failure hospitalization. The number of ischemic strokes that are components of the secondary outcome does not therefore match the number of ischemic strokes that are components of the primary outcome. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects with ischemic stroke)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1)of all randomized patients / 365.25.
Time Frame From date of randomization to date of ischemic stroke component of secondary composite outcome, up to 6 years

Outcome Measure Data

Analysis Population Description
Intent-to-treat.
Arm/Group Title Aspirin Warfarin
Arm/Group Description Aspirin : 325 mg per day Warfarin : INR 2.5-3.0; target INR 2.75
Measure Participants 1163 1142
Number [events per 100 patient years]
1.14
0.57
Statistical Analysis 1
Statistical Analysis Overview Comparison Group Selection Aspirin, Warfarin
Comments Null hypothesis: there is no difference between warfarin and aspirin in time to ischemic stroke, adjusting for competing risks of myocardial infarction, heart failure hospitalization, death and intracerebral hemorrhage.
Type of Statistical Test Superiority or Other
Comments
Statistical Test of Hypothesis p-Value 0.03
Comments
Method Regression, Cox
Comments Cause-specific Cox model, stratified by site, NYHA class (I vs. II, III, or IV), and prior stroke or TIA status.
Method of Estimation Estimation Parameter Hazard Ratio (HR)
Estimated Value 0.55
Confidence Interval (2-Sided) 95%
0.32 to 0.96
Parameter Dispersion Type:
Value:
Estimation Comments
9. Other Pre-specified Outcome
Title Event Rate Per 100 Patient Years of Intracerebral Hemorrhage Component of Secondary Composite Outcome
Description Time, in years, from date of randomization to date of intracerebral hemorrhage component of secondary composite outcome. Includes only intracerebral hemorrhages not preceded by myocardial infarction or heart failure hospitalization. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects with intracerebral hemorrhage)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.
Time Frame From date of randomization to date of intracerebral hemorrhage component of secondary composite outcome, up to 6 years

Outcome Measure Data

Analysis Population Description
Intent-to-treat
Arm/Group Title Aspirin Warfarin
Arm/Group Description Aspirin : 325 mg per day Warfarin : INR 2.5-3.0; target INR 2.75
Measure Participants 1163 1142
Number [events per 100 patient years]
0.06
0.11
Statistical Analysis 1
Statistical Analysis Overview Comparison Group Selection Aspirin, Warfarin
Comments Null hypothesis: there is no difference between warfarin and aspirin in time to intracerebral hemorrhage, adjusting for competing risks of myocardial infarction, heart failure hospitalization, ischemic stroke, and death.
Type of Statistical Test Superiority or Other
Comments
Statistical Test of Hypothesis p-Value 0.51
Comments
Method Regression, Cox
Comments Cause-specific Cox model, stratified by site, NYHA class (I vs. II, III, or IV), and prior stroke or TIA status.
Method of Estimation Estimation Parameter Hazard Ratio (HR)
Estimated Value 1.77
Confidence Interval (2-Sided) 95%
0.32 to 9.88
Parameter Dispersion Type:
Value:
Estimation Comments Hazard ratio is for comparison of warfarin vs. aspirin. Warfarin represents the numerator and aspirin represents the denominator of the hazard ratio.
10. Other Pre-specified Outcome
Title Event Rate Per 100 Patient Years of Death Component of Secondary Composite Outcome
Description Time, in years, from randomization to death component of secondary composite outcome. This measure counts only deaths that were not preceded by heart failure hospitalization, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or intracerebral hemorrhage. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of subjects who died)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.
Time Frame From date of randomization to date of death component of secondary composite outcome, up to 6 years

Outcome Measure Data

Analysis Population Description
Intent-to-treat
Arm/Group Title Aspirin Warfarin
Arm/Group Description Aspirin : 325 mg per day Warfarin : INR 2.5-3.0; target INR 2.75
Measure Participants 1163 1142
Number [events per 100 patient years]
4.41
4.43
Statistical Analysis 1
Statistical Analysis Overview Comparison Group Selection Aspirin, Warfarin
Comments
Type of Statistical Test Superiority or Other
Comments
Statistical Test of Hypothesis p-Value 0.83
Comments
Method Regression, Cox
Comments Cause-specific Cox model, stratified by site, NYHA class (I vs. II, III, or IV), and prior stroke or TIA status.
Method of Estimation Estimation Parameter Hazard Ratio (HR)
Estimated Value 1.03
Confidence Interval () 95%
0.81 to 1.30
Parameter Dispersion Type:
Value:
Estimation Comments
11. Other Pre-specified Outcome
Title Rate Per 100 Patient Years of Major Hemorrhage
Description Rate/100 patient-years of major hemorrhage. Includes all major hemorrhages in any patient. Major hemorrhage was defined as intracerebral, epidural, subdural, subarachnoid, spinal intramedullary, or retinal hemorrhage; any other bleeding causing a decline in the hemoglobin level of more than 2 g per deciliter in 48 hours; or bleeding requiring transfusion of 2 or more units of whole blood, hospitalization, or surgical intervention. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of major hemorrhage events)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1) of all randomized patients / 365.25.
Time Frame From date of randomization until end of scheduled follow-up, up to 6 years

Outcome Measure Data

Analysis Population Description
Intent-to-treat
Arm/Group Title Aspirin Warfarin
Arm/Group Description Aspirin : 325 mg per day Warfarin : INR 2.5-3.0; target INR 2.75
Measure Participants 1163 1142
Number [events per 100 patient years]
0.87
1.78
Statistical Analysis 1
Statistical Analysis Overview Comparison Group Selection Aspirin, Warfarin
Comments
Type of Statistical Test Superiority or Other
Comments
Statistical Test of Hypothesis p-Value <0.001
Comments
Method Regression, Poisson
Comments
Method of Estimation Estimation Parameter Rate ratio
Estimated Value 2.05
Confidence Interval (2-Sided) 95%
1.36 to 3.12
Parameter Dispersion Type:
Value:
Estimation Comments The warfarin arm represents the numerator and the aspirin arm represents the denominator of the rate ratio.
12. Other Pre-specified Outcome
Title Rate Per 100 Patient-years of Minor Hemorrhage.
Description Rate per 100 patient years of minor hemorrhage. Includes all minor hemorrhages. Minor hemorrhage was defined as any non-major hemorrhage. Event rate per 100 patient years = 100*(number of minor hemorrhage events)/patient-years of follow-up. Patient years of follow-up = sum(date of conclusion of follow-up - date of randomization + 1)of all randomized patients / 365.25.
Time Frame From date of randomization until the end of scheduled follow-up, up to 6 years

Outcome Measure Data

Analysis Population Description
Intent-to-treat
Arm/Group Title Aspirin Warfarin
Arm/Group Description Aspirin : 325 mg per day Warfarin : INR 2.5-3.0; target INR 2.75
Measure Participants 1163 1142
Number [events per 100 patient-years]
7.34
11.6
Statistical Analysis 1
Statistical Analysis Overview Comparison Group Selection Aspirin, Warfarin
Comments
Type of Statistical Test Superiority or Other
Comments
Statistical Test of Hypothesis p-Value <0.001
Comments
Method Regression, Poisson
Comments
Method of Estimation Estimation Parameter Rate ratio
Estimated Value 1.56
Confidence Interval () 95%
1.34 to 1.81
Parameter Dispersion Type:
Value:
Estimation Comments Warfarin group represents the numerator and aspirin group represents denominator of rate ratio.

Adverse Events

Time Frame
Adverse Event Reporting Description
Arm/Group Title Aspirin Warfarin
Arm/Group Description Aspirin : 325 mg per day Warfarin : INR 2.5-3.0; target INR 2.75
All Cause Mortality
Aspirin Warfarin
Affected / at Risk (%) # Events Affected / at Risk (%) # Events
Total / (NaN) / (NaN)
Serious Adverse Events
Aspirin Warfarin
Affected / at Risk (%) # Events Affected / at Risk (%) # Events
Total 617/1163 (53.1%) 632/1142 (55.3%)
Blood and lymphatic system disorders
Blood dyscrasia 3/1163 (0.3%) 3 4/1142 (0.4%) 4
BLOOD/BONE MARROW: Other 1/1163 (0.1%) 1 3/1142 (0.3%) 4
Thrombocytopenia/Anemia/Leukopenia 1/1163 (0.1%) 1 12/1142 (1.1%) 12
Hemorrhage/Bleeding 0/1163 (0%) 0 1/1142 (0.1%) 1
LYMPHATICS: Other 1/1163 (0.1%) 1 0/1142 (0%) 0
Peripheral edema 4/1163 (0.3%) 4 4/1142 (0.4%) 4
Cardiac disorders
Atrial fibrillation/Atrial flutter/Supraventricular tachycardia 56/1163 (4.8%) 67 35/1142 (3.1%) 45
Bradycardia 6/1163 (0.5%) 6 6/1142 (0.5%) 6
CARDIAC ARRHYTHMIA: Other 7/1163 (0.6%) 7 3/1142 (0.3%) 3
Ventricular fibrillation 7/1163 (0.6%) 8 15/1142 (1.3%) 17
Ventricular tachycardia 24/1163 (2.1%) 33 39/1142 (3.4%) 46
Acute cardiac failure/CHF/Pulmonary edema 209/1163 (18%) 432 243/1142 (21.3%) 506
AICD firing/discharge 16/1163 (1.4%) 21 20/1142 (1.8%) 21
Angina/Chest pain 70/1163 (6%) 105 88/1142 (7.7%) 148
CARDIAC GENERAL: Other 16/1163 (1.4%) 18 16/1142 (1.4%) 19
Malignant hypertension 3/1163 (0.3%) 3 7/1142 (0.6%) 7
Myocardial infarction/Acute Coronary Syndrome 48/1163 (4.1%) 60 50/1142 (4.4%) 59
Pulmonary embolism 6/1163 (0.5%) 6 5/1142 (0.4%) 5
Endocrine disorders
Diabetes mellitus and its complications 26/1163 (2.2%) 35 22/1142 (1.9%) 35
ENDOCRINE: Other 2/1163 (0.2%) 2 1/1142 (0.1%) 1
Eye disorders
OCULAR/VISUAL: Other 5/1163 (0.4%) 7 3/1142 (0.3%) 5
Gastrointestinal disorders
Gastrointestinal disturbance/Diarrhea/Jaundice/Nausea/Stomach pain/Etc. 54/1163 (4.6%) 70 66/1142 (5.8%) 82
GASTROINTESTINAL: Other 25/1163 (2.1%) 31 17/1142 (1.5%) 18
General disorders
ALLERGY/IMMUNOLOGY: Other 1/1163 (0.1%) 1 1/1142 (0.1%) 1
Laryngeal edema/Allergic reaction/Anaphylaxis/Angioedema/Rash 4/1163 (0.3%) 4 2/1142 (0.2%) 2
CONSTITUTIONAL SYMPTOMS: Other 7/1163 (0.6%) 7 1/1142 (0.1%) 1
Drug abuse 3/1163 (0.3%) 3 1/1142 (0.1%) 1
OTHER: Other 19/1163 (1.6%) 23 32/1142 (2.8%) 33
Pregnancy 0/1163 (0%) 0 1/1142 (0.1%) 1
Suicide attempt/Psychiatric disorder 16/1163 (1.4%) 16 10/1142 (0.9%) 10
PAIN: Other 14/1163 (1.2%) 15 13/1142 (1.1%) 20
Hepatobiliary disorders
Acute hepatic failure 3/1163 (0.3%) 3 3/1142 (0.3%) 3
HEPATOBILIARY/PANCREAS: Other 3/1163 (0.3%) 3 5/1142 (0.4%) 7
Infections and infestations
Infection/Sepsis/Fever 66/1163 (5.7%) 79 79/1142 (6.9%) 97
Metabolism and nutrition disorders
Metabolic disturbance/Gout 14/1163 (1.2%) 15 16/1142 (1.4%) 17
METABOLIC/LABORATORY: Other 12/1163 (1%) 14 10/1142 (0.9%) 11
Musculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders
MUSCULOSKELETAL/SOFT TISSUE: Other 39/1163 (3.4%) 43 29/1142 (2.5%) 32
Visceral necrosis 0/1163 (0%) 0 4/1142 (0.4%) 4
Neoplasms benign, malignant and unspecified (incl cysts and polyps)
MALIGNANCY: Other 22/1163 (1.9%) 24 20/1142 (1.8%) 24
Nervous system disorders
Convulsions/Seizures 6/1163 (0.5%) 6 5/1142 (0.4%) 10
NEUROLOGY: Other 8/1163 (0.7%) 8 7/1142 (0.6%) 7
Stroke or TIA 13/1163 (1.1%) 16 15/1142 (1.3%) 16
Syncope/Pre-syncope 41/1163 (3.5%) 48 68/1142 (6%) 83
Renal and urinary disorders
Acute renal failure/Proteinuria 28/1163 (2.4%) 32 33/1142 (2.9%) 36
RENAL/GENITOURINARY: Other 7/1163 (0.6%) 7 7/1142 (0.6%) 7
Reproductive system and breast disorders
SEXUAL/REPRODUCTIVE FUNCTION: Other 2/1163 (0.2%) 2 6/1142 (0.5%) 6
Respiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disorders
Acute respiratory failure 7/1163 (0.6%) 8 9/1142 (0.8%) 9
Pulmonary disease/Pneumonia/Bronchitis/Asthma/Breathing difficulties 87/1163 (7.5%) 133 79/1142 (6.9%) 100
PULMONARY/UPPER RESPIRATORY: Other 7/1163 (0.6%) 7 3/1142 (0.3%) 3
Skin and subcutaneous tissue disorders
DERMATOLOGY/SKIN: Other 1/1163 (0.1%) 1 0/1142 (0%) 0
Grade 4 dermatologic manifestations 1/1163 (0.1%) 2 1/1142 (0.1%) 1
Surgical and medical procedures
"Cardiac device implantation (pacemaker, defibrillator, etc.)" 123/1163 (10.6%) 133 109/1142 (9.5%) 118
"Cardiac procedure (stent, catheterization, EP study, ablation, etc.)" 62/1163 (5.3%) 76 66/1142 (5.8%) 82
Cardiac surgery 28/1163 (2.4%) 28 23/1142 (2%) 25
Non-cardiac surgery/Diagnostic surgery 75/1163 (6.4%) 102 57/1142 (5%) 67
SURGERY/INTRA-OPERATIVE INJURY: Other 4/1163 (0.3%) 4 8/1142 (0.7%) 8
Vascular disorders
Systemic embolism 3/1163 (0.3%) 3 5/1142 (0.4%) 5
VASCULAR: Other 16/1163 (1.4%) 17 13/1142 (1.1%) 13
Other (Not Including Serious) Adverse Events
Aspirin Warfarin
Affected / at Risk (%) # Events Affected / at Risk (%) # Events
Total 749/1163 (64.4%) 799/1142 (70%)
General disorders
All non-serious adverse events 749/1163 (64.4%) 4483 799/1142 (70%) 4895

Limitations/Caveats

[Not Specified]

More Information

Certain Agreements

Principal Investigators are NOT employed by the organization sponsoring the study.

There is NOT an agreement between Principal Investigators and the Sponsor (or its agents) that restricts the PI's rights to discuss or publish trial results after the trial is completed.

Results Point of Contact

Name/Title Dr. J.L.P. (Seamus) Thompson
Organization Columbia University
Phone 212-342-1252
Email jlt12@columbia.edu
Responsible Party:
Shunichi Homma, Margaret Milliken Hatch Professor of Medicine at the New York-Presbyterian Hospital at the Columbia University Medical Center (In Biomedical Engineering), Columbia University
ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier:
NCT00041938
Other Study ID Numbers:
  • AAAC1093
  • U01NS039143-01
  • R01NS39154
  • CRC
First Posted:
Jul 22, 2002
Last Update Posted:
Sep 5, 2014
Last Verified:
Aug 1, 2014